Mental Models
Better choices through structured thinking
The Inversion Mental Model: Solve Hard Problems by Working Backwards
Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure, then avoid it. Where inversion comes from (Jacobi, Munger, Wald's bombers), the research on premortems and subtraction, and how to use it on your next decision.
The Circle of Competence: Why Smart People Fail Outside Their Field
Linus Pauling won two Nobel Prizes and still went badly wrong on vitamin C. The circle of competence explains why expertise doesn't transfer, why the edge of your knowledge is so hard to see, and how to find it.
Charlie Munger's Mental Models, Explained
Munger's "latticework" of mental models: inversion, circle of competence, incentives, opportunity cost, margin of safety and the Lollapalooza effect. Where each comes from, what the research says, and how to use them on ordinary decisions.
Human-AI Collaboration: When Centaur Thinking Works, and When It Doesn't
A 2024 meta-analysis found human-AI teams did worse on average than the better of the two alone. Where the centaur idea comes from, what the research says about when pairing helps, and a four-step loop that keeps your judgment in charge.
The Ship of Theseus: What an Ancient Paradox Says About Identity
If every plank is replaced, is it the same ship? The paradox, Hobbes's twist, and what psychology has found about how people judge identity, from the "end of history illusion" to why moral character matters most.
The Veil of Ignorance: Rawls's Thought Experiment, Explained
If you didn't know who you'd be born as, what rules would you choose? Rawls's veil of ignorance, maximin in plain terms, Harsanyi's objection, what experiments with real groups found, and a free simulator to try it.
Bayesian Thinking: How to Update Your Beliefs
Treat beliefs as estimates, not possessions, and move them by as much as the evidence warrants. Bayes' theorem without the maths, the screening test most doctors get wrong, and three habits for daily life.
The Cobra Effect: When the Fix Makes the Problem Worse
Perverse incentives can make a solution feed the problem it targets. The famous Delhi story is probably a parable, but the pattern is well documented, from the Hanoi rat bounty to Wells Fargo's sales targets. How to spot it before it bites.
False Dilemmas: How to Escape Binary Thinking and Find the Third Option
Most hard decisions arrive framed as A or B, and "whether or not" decisions fail more often. How to spot a false dilemma, find the assumption both options share, and add the option most often forgotten.
Flipping a Coin: The Surprising Science of Decision Making
In Steven Levitt's study, people a coin nudged into making a change were happier six months later. Why close calls deserve less analysis, how a coin's result reveals what you were hoping for, and when not to flip.